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Subject: [getsmart-l] Effective change follows trends by,
	what? Five years? We are late already!
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20071211.PRZREVERSECOMMU=
TING11/TPStory/?query=3Dcommuters
Reverse commuters reflect shift in land use
As firms flee crowded downtown to the suburbs, a new class of worker is =
fleeing the city every morning
AMY BROWN-BOWERS Special to The Globe and Mail December 11, 2007

TORONTO -- Most weekday mornings, Brian McWilliams leaves his downtown =
Toronto condo, hops in his car and gets out of town - slowly.

Mr. McWilliams and thousands of other commuters are part of a trend in =
which, judging by the traffic, there appear to be nearly as many people =
leaving Toronto every morning to go to work as there are heading toward =
the city's office towers.

These "reverse commuters" - those going against the traditional tide of =
traffic by living in urban centres and commuting to the suburbs for work =
- also reflect complex demographic, transportation and property =
developments of recent years.

Last week, two reports shed light on this trend.

Census data released by Statistics Canada showed that new immigrants are =
flocking to Canada's major urban areas but, unlike Mr. McWilliams, =
they're choosing to live in the suburbs of Toronto, Vancouver and =
Montreal. They're not only finding cheaper housing but a large pool of =
potential employers, who have been moving offices and factories to more =
available land in the suburbs.

And the flight to the suburbs is expected to continue, suggests a report =
last week from Cushman & Wakefield LePage. In its 2008 outlook, the real =
estate firm expects the national office vacancy rate to drop to 5.6 per =
cent next year. But in major cities, such as Vancouver, Calgary and =
Toronto, the vacancy rate in downtown areas will be much tighter, =
prompting tenants to consider moving to the suburbs where new office =
space is coming on stream.

In Toronto, which Cushman says represents more than 40 per cent of the =
total Canadian office market, the downtown office vacancy rate is =
expected to fall to 3.8 per cent this time next year from 6.2 per cent a =
year ago.

"We are now at the point where demand will have to slow in the central =
market, simply due to the lack of available space," Paul Morse, =
Cushman's senior managing director and national practice director of =
office leasing, warns in a release. "Those expanding or entering the =
market are now considering space in mid-town or further into the 905 =
[suburban] regions to meet their space needs."

This shift can be seen every morning in Toronto, where the likes of Mr. =
McWilliams are forming long lines of traffic on major outbound arteries =
- a change from just a few years ago when the heavy traffic was =
primarily inbound.

Not only are reverse commuters growing in numbers because their jobs are =
relocating out of the city, but residential space in the downtown core =
is growing exponentially faster than office space, according to figures =
from Toronto's planning department.

Currently, there are seven commercial office projects in the works in =
Toronto, representing nearly five million square feet. In comparison, =
there are 149 residential housing projects with a total of 39,398 units =
in the pipeline. Even if each of those units were only 600 square feet, =
that would amount to a whopping 23.6 million square feet.

Urban planners have been trying to adjust to these trends, especially as =
it applies to transportation.

"There was a strategy in the late 1970s and early eighties and it was =
focusing on decentralization," says Rod McPhail, director of =
transportation planning for Toronto.

At that time, planners decided that the city needed to grow from about =
1.5 million people to about three million. The problem was that the =
transportation infrastructure, designed to bring people into the city =
from the suburbs, couldn't accommodate that kind of growth.

"We had to come up with a development strategy," Mr. McPhail says.=20

The solution was to make use of the empty commuter trains, subway cars =
and roads heading out of the downtown core in the morning and back into =
the city at night. To do that, planners encouraged the creation of =
pockets of jobs at the edges of the city and at the far ends of the =
transportation system to draw people outward each morning.

The strategy was wildly successful. In Mississauga, for instance, just =
west of Toronto, there are 406,000 jobs but a labour force of only about =
364,000, according to figures supplied by the city.=20

The sprawling metropolis has been wooing companies with its lower taxes, =
space availability and attractive rental rates for years - it is =
currently the Canadian headquarters for 59 Fortune 500 companies and 51 =
Global Fortune 500 companies, and building permits were issued for more =
than 1.5 million square feet of office space in the past year and a =
half.=20

"The concept that most people are travelling to work in Toronto, well =
that used to be the case," says Robert Sasaki, Mississauga's manager of =
transportation planning. On a typical weekday between 6 and 9 a.m., =
122,000 commuters travel to jobs in Mississauga, about 40,000 of whom =
are from Toronto, he says.

But the strategy's success has created a new set of challenges, Mr. =
McPhail says.=20

At first, reverse commuters happily sailed past incoming traffic on the =
roads and enjoyed empty trains, but now their commute has become just as =
clogged as the traditional commute in many cases. As well, there isn't =
sufficient public transit infrastructure to get city folk to their =
increasingly dispersed suburban offices and factories, leaving them with =
no option but to drive.

"The transit to do that type of [reverse] trip just doesn't exist. ... =
That's why we're seeing such a huge increase in car traffic because =
almost every new job in the 905 area that's filled by a City of Toronto =
resident is a car trip," Mr. McPhail says.

Mr. McWilliams, for one, drives every morning from a condo complex a =
home run's distance from the Rogers Centre to Mississauga, where he =
works in the health care division of General Electric Canada Inc.'s =
headquarters.

"All my friends are downtown. I'm just not ready for a suburban life. =
There's not much going on for people our age," he says.=20

"The extra time I spend commuting each week is worth the tradeoff."

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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><A=20
href=3D"http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20071211.PRZREVE=
RSECOMMUTING11/TPStory/?query=3Dcommuters">http://www.theglobeandmail.com=
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<DIV>
<DIV id=3Dheadline>
<H2><FONT size=3D3>Reverse commuters reflect shift in land =
use</FONT></H2>
<H3 id=3Ddeck><FONT size=3D3>As firms flee crowded downtown to the =
suburbs, a new=20
class of worker is fleeing the city every morning</FONT></H3></DIV>
<DIV id=3Dauthor>
<P class=3Dbyline>AMY BROWN-BOWERS Special to The Globe and Mail =
December 11,=20
2007</P></DIV>
<DIV id=3Darticle style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 100%"><!-- Summary -->
<P><!-- dateline -->TORONTO<!-- /dateline --> -- Most weekday mornings, =
Brian=20
McWilliams leaves his downtown Toronto condo, hops in his car and gets =
out of=20
town - slowly.</P>
<P>Mr. McWilliams and thousands of other commuters are part of a trend =
in which,=20
judging by the traffic, there appear to be nearly as many people leaving =
Toronto=20
every morning to go to work as there are heading toward the city's =
office=20
towers.</P><!-- /Summary -->
<P>These "reverse commuters" - those going against the traditional tide =
of=20
traffic by living in urban centres and commuting to the suburbs for work =
- also=20
reflect complex demographic, transportation and property developments of =
recent=20
years.</P>
<P>Last week, two reports shed light on this trend.</P><!-- end #inTP =
-->
<P>Census data released by Statistics Canada showed that new immigrants =
are=20
flocking to Canada's major urban areas but, unlike Mr. McWilliams, =
they're=20
choosing to live in the suburbs of Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. =
They're not=20
only finding cheaper housing but a large pool of potential employers, =
who have=20
been moving offices and factories to more available land in the =
suburbs.</P>
<P>And the flight to the suburbs is expected to continue, suggests a =
report last=20
week from Cushman &amp; Wakefield LePage. In its 2008 outlook, the real =
estate=20
firm expects the national office vacancy rate to drop to 5.6 per cent =
next year.=20
But in major cities, such as Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto, the vacancy =
rate in=20
downtown areas will be much tighter, prompting tenants to consider =
moving to the=20
suburbs where new office space is coming on stream.</P>
<P>In Toronto, which Cushman says represents more than 40 per cent of =
the total=20
Canadian office market, the downtown office vacancy rate is expected to =
fall to=20
3.8 per cent this time next year from 6.2 per cent a year ago.</P>
<P>"We are now at the point where demand will have to slow in the =
central=20
market, simply due to the lack of available space," Paul Morse, =
Cushman's senior=20
managing director and national practice director of office leasing, =
warns in a=20
release. "Those expanding or entering the market are now considering =
space in=20
mid-town or further into the 905 [suburban] regions to meet their space=20
needs."</P>
<P>This shift can be seen every morning in Toronto, where the likes of =
Mr.=20
McWilliams are forming long lines of traffic on major outbound arteries =
- a=20
change from just a few years ago when the heavy traffic was primarily=20
inbound.</P>
<P>Not only are reverse commuters growing in numbers because their jobs =
are=20
relocating out of the city, but residential space in the downtown core =
is=20
growing exponentially faster than office space, according to figures =
from=20
Toronto's planning department.</P>
<P>Currently, there are seven commercial office projects in the works in =

Toronto, representing nearly five million square feet. In comparison, =
there are=20
149 residential housing projects with a total of 39,398 units in the =
pipeline.=20
Even if each of those units were only 600 square feet, that would amount =
to a=20
whopping 23.6 million square feet.</P>
<P>Urban planners have been trying to adjust to these trends, especially =
as it=20
applies to transportation.</P>
<P>"There was a strategy in the late 1970s and early eighties and it was =

focusing on decentralization," says Rod McPhail, director of =
transportation=20
planning for Toronto.</P>
<P>At that time, planners decided that the city needed to grow from =
about 1.5=20
million people to about three million. The problem was that the =
transportation=20
infrastructure, designed to bring people into the city from the suburbs, =

couldn't accommodate that kind of growth.</P>
<P>"We had to come up with a development strategy," Mr. McPhail says. =
</P>
<P>The solution was to make use of the empty commuter trains, subway =
cars and=20
roads heading out of the downtown core in the morning and back into the =
city at=20
night. To do that, planners encouraged the creation of pockets of jobs =
at the=20
edges of the city and at the far ends of the transportation system to =
draw=20
people outward each morning.</P>
<P>The strategy was wildly successful. In Mississauga, for instance, =
just west=20
of Toronto, there are 406,000 jobs but a labour force of only about =
364,000,=20
according to figures supplied by the city. </P>
<P>The sprawling metropolis has been wooing companies with its lower =
taxes,=20
space availability and attractive rental rates for years - it is =
currently the=20
Canadian headquarters for 59 Fortune 500 companies and 51 Global Fortune =
500=20
companies, and building permits were issued for more than 1.5 million =
square=20
feet of office space in the past year and a half. </P>
<P>"The concept that most people are travelling to work in Toronto, well =
that=20
used to be the case," says Robert Sasaki, Mississauga's manager of=20
transportation planning. On a typical weekday between 6 and 9 a.m., =
122,000=20
commuters travel to jobs in Mississauga, about 40,000 of whom are from =
Toronto,=20
he says.</P>
<P>But the strategy's success has created a new set of challenges, Mr. =
McPhail=20
says. </P>
<P>At first, reverse commuters happily sailed past incoming traffic on =
the roads=20
and enjoyed empty trains, but now their commute has become just as =
clogged as=20
the traditional commute in many cases. As well, there isn't sufficient =
public=20
transit infrastructure to get city folk to their increasingly dispersed =
suburban=20
offices and factories, leaving them with no option but to drive.</P>
<P>"The transit to do that type of [reverse] trip just doesn't exist. =
... That's=20
why we're seeing such a huge increase in car traffic because almost =
every new=20
job in the 905 area that's filled by a City of Toronto resident is a car =
trip,"=20
Mr. McPhail says.</P>
<P>Mr. McWilliams, for one, drives every morning from a condo complex a =
home=20
run's distance from the Rogers Centre to Mississauga, where he works in =
the=20
health care division of General Electric Canada Inc.'s headquarters.</P>
<P>"All my friends are downtown. I'm just not ready for a suburban life. =
There's=20
not much going on for people our age," he says. </P>
<P>"The extra time I spend commuting each week is worth the=20
tradeoff."</P></DIV></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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