[getsmart-l] Moving Quickly on Transit in Toronto

[ECommGroup at aol.com]

Hi, Janet.  Can the following be published, please?
 
John Stillich
 
 
 
Rapid  climate change and a looming energy crisis demand that major modal 
shifts to  mass transit occur at a far faster pace than currently proposed by 
governments  in the GTA and Ontario.  The Province’s $17.5 billion commitment  to 
transit in Ontario  will take years to get off the ground, if at all, due to 
its dependence on the  federal government for cost-sharing.   
Under these  circumstances, pinning Toronto’s hopes on  the $6.1 billion ‘
Transit City’  light rail transit (LRT) plan is not the way to go.  Toronto  
(and the GTA for other projects) need to proceed much faster.  If the Ontario 
Government is serious  about its commitment to transit, it can provide 100% money 
up front (i.e. no  waiting for the feds) for a bus-based system expansion 
that is more extensive  and more effective than the LRT plan, at half the price, 
and that can be  completed in half the time. 
The following describes this alternative, and why a bus-based system  is the 
better way.  All  comments welcome. 
Plan  B:  A Bus−Lane Transit City 
The City of Toronto’s dramatic  ‘Transit City’  effort to add or extend 
seven light rail transit lines on major roads by the  year 2021 is a tribute to 
its commitment to make Toronto  a better, greener place to live and work.  Plans 
call for spending $6.1 billion to buy a fleet of new light rail  transit cars 
to run on 122 new kilometres of track that will add about 93  million new 
transit riders per year.  The Government of Ontario has recognized the need to 
move quickly on  transit, by including it in a$17.5 billion initiative that 
would see a range of  projects completed across the province. 
Unfortunately,  the budget crisis in Toronto  will make many people wonder if 
the city can afford to operate such a system,  even if Queen’s Park picks up 
the cost of building it.  Even so, a number of factors make it essential to 
get people out of their cars and  onto public transit.  Firstly,  there’s an 
energy crisis about to hit us all that will dramatically change how  we live – a 
looming shortage of oil and gas that even the oil companies are no  longer 
denying.  ‘Peak oil’– the  point where it will not be possible for petroleum 
suppliers to meet global  demand – is close, many say within a decade.  When that 
happens, the price of gasoline  will gyrate significantly higher in order to 
reduce demand.  The result will be that a large portion  of Greater Toronto 
Area drivers will be looking for alternatives to driving  their own cars.  
There’s also  a critical need to cut back on fossil fuel consumption as part 
of Canada’s treaty  obligations under the Kyoto Accord, including oil and 
ethanol for  transportation; that will add to the pressure for alternatives to 
driving.   
A third  factor that drives the need to move people onto public transit is 
traffic  congestion on the roads.  With  cross-border travel between Toronto,  
Peel, York  and Durham  increasing every year, and populations growing in every 
part of the region, more  and more vehicles will continue to move more and 
more slowly.   
With all of  these problems, the key question is, how well will Toronto’s LRT 
plan  actually contribute to reducing vehicle-kilometres traveled by 
automobile?  93 million new riders a year for the LRT  plan may sound like a lot, but 
that works out to perhaps 300,000 per day by  2021, when the total number of 
daily trips by Toronto residents alone – not  counting cross-border trips 
originating in surrounding municipalities – will  increase by 600,000.  Congestion  
will increase.   
Much greater shifts to transit (and walking/cycling) are needed.  An 
alternative transit plan that can  deliver more people more quickly and at lower cost 
should be  considered. 
To advocates  of light rail transit, it may be heresy to suggest that running 
buses in  bus-only lanes works better than light rail transit.  But the 
advantages exist, and they are  considerable.  For instance, a bus  lane can 
accommodate both local service and express services in the same  right-of-way, 
whereas a rail-based system cannot.  This is an important consideration given  that 
ways need to be found to get the longer-distance travelers that GO Transit  
cannot serve – particularly suburb-to-suburb traffic -- off of Toronto’s  
streets.  A bus-based network is  also easier to integrate into a region-wide 
network, because the Toronto  region’s transit systems are all bus-based systems, 
and a bus originating from  any point in the region can easily glide onto or 
off of reserved bus lanes in Toronto.  Passenger transfers between rail and bus 
are minimized.   
Speed is an important factor for commuters.  Unfortunately, because the 
proposed LRT  service will be primarily local, with stops at and between arterial 
roads, its  attraction to today’s time-pressed drivers will be minimal.   
A bus-based service can operate using curb lanes, without the barriers of  an 
LRT right-of-way, and when properly designed, enable easy turns for other  
motor vehicles (see illustration).  In contrast, left turns for trucks and  
automobiles in a centre-of-the-road LRT system are more difficult.  Curb-lane 
service also reduces the need  for passengers to cross streets to get on or off 
transit vehicles.   
For any reasonable transit system, enclosed shelters at transit stops are  a 
must.  With centre-of-the-road LRT  tracks, adequate space for enclosed and 
comfortable shelters at stops is  difficult to carve out. At many stops with a 
curb-lane bus service, many more  opportunities exist for comfortable shelters, 
including paid-fare shelters that  speed loading of buses. 
People often suggest that the smoothness and comfort of a streetcar ride  
cannot be matched by buses running on pavement.  However, road surfaces can be 
made to be  quite smooth, and a certainly more money can be spent to raise 
comfort levels on  TTC buses a very long way. 
And then  there’s the cost.  In a bus-based  scenario where a number of 
bus-only transit lanes were extended to 156  kilometres in total and the number of 
transit vehicles almost double that of the  LRT plan (see table below), the 
capital cost of a bus-based scenario is half  that of the 122-km. LRT plan -- 
$3.0 billion versus $6.1 billion.  (Both scenarios include the Transit City  LRT 
plan’s Eglinton  Avenue  tunnel.)  The major cost differences  between the 
scenarios are roadbed construction and the cost of transit vehicles  (Please 
note that the buses were costed at three times normal to balance with  the up-to 
40-year lifecycle of LRT vehicles). 
TTC  LRT Plan  
Bus  Lane Plan   
Length  of track or lane (km)  
122  
156   
Total  capital cost (m$)  
6,105  
2,701   
Approx.  no. of transit vehicles  
245  
469   
Est.  Ridership Increase (mil)  
93  
128   
Capital  cost per annual rider  
$35.09  
$11.82   
Capital  cost per km track or bus lane  
$49.9m  
$17.3m 
What this  means is that it is possible to implement a much more extensive 
bus-based plan  with the $6.1 billion set aside for the LRT plan.  
Theoretically, it isn’t possible to set  aside exclusive bus lanes on every transit route 
in Toronto,  but the total number of buses serving the city can be at least 
doubled by 2021,  cutting wait times for passengers in half.  Because 
longer-distance commuters within Toronto and its surrounding  municipalities are a 
principal cause of congestion and vehicle emissions, it  would make good sense to 
allocate several hundred of the buses as express  services covering the larger 
Toronto area, using highways and the city’s new bus  lanes – a bus rapid 
transit system that in time should also feed into new subway  lines across Toronto. 
 
Unfortunately,  the budget crisis in Toronto  is not one that will be 
resolved without major changes in the way public  services are funded.  In the  
interim, it may make sense for Queen’s Park to agree to trade some of the  transit 
capital funds for operating money, in order to ensure that Toronto  can afford 
to operate transit improvements, or even just maintain current levels  of 
services.   It is also  possible for the Ontario  government to implement this 
bus plan within its own commitment of funds,  without waiting for the federal 
government in Ottawa  to agree to participate. 
But the overall bottom line remains that, as energy prices rapidly  increase 
and greenhouse gas emissions are reaching unsustainable levels, we are  in a 
race against time, and Toronto and its neighbours need to get as many  people 
out of their cars as quickly as possible.  A system of comfortable, fast and  
extensive buses in reserved lanes is a very cost-effective way to do it.   
John Stillich 
ECommGroup at aol.com 
905-820-4110



   
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