[getsmart-l] FW: Handy Energy facts for North Americans

[Lloyd Helferty]

  _____  

From: Brian Iler
Sent: January 16, 2008 3:00 PM
Subject: Handy Energy facts for North Americans
Importance: High

 

Handy Facts as N.A. Natural Gas Declines & NAFTA and Peak Oil become
National Issues 

MMb/d = Million barrels per day.

<e> = equivalent

liquid fuel = crude oil + oil <e>

Tcf = Trillion cubic feet

 

95% of all transportation is liquid fuel dependent. 

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The Canadian NEB on Canada's Oil Exports: 

Canada is now averaging 1.7 MMb of oil exports per day to the U.S.  

http://www.neb.
<http://www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/sttstc/crdlndptrlmprdct/2007/ttlcrd
lxprtmprl.xls>
gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/sttstc/crdlndptrlmprdct/2007/ttlcrdlxprtmprl.xls

 

Canada's oil production in 2006 averaged 2.62 MMb/d.  

http://www.neb.
<http://www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/sttstc/crdlndptrlmprdct/stmtdprdctn
-eng.html>
gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/sttstc/crdlndptrlmprdct/stmtdprdctn-eng.html 

 

This means that 65% of Canada's oil is going from us to U.S.

 

Canada imports about 1Million barrels of oil per day from the world market.

 

Quebec and the Maritimes rely on the international oil market for 90% of
their oil requirements.  Ontario gets 40% of its oil internationally.

 

IMPORTS 2006

Quebec .326 MMb/d, 

Maritimes .293 MMb/d

Ontario  .123 MMb/d 

http://www.neb.
<http://www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/sttstc/crdlndptrlmprdct/2006/dspstn
dmstclghtcrdlmprt2006.xls>
gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/sttstc/crdlndptrlmprdct/2006/dspstndmstclghtcrdlmpr
t2006.xls

 

Ontario's supply security is further complicated by the fact that the other
60% of its supply is reimported from the U.S. to us.  This is almost
certainly poses no significant problem while contracts and agreements are
being respected; but as we have found with lumber and beef when times get
turbulent what's sauce for the goose may not always prove to be sauce for
the gander.

 

The Canadian NEB on Canada's Natural Gas Exports.

http://www.neb.
<http://www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/sttstc/ntrlgsxprt/ntrlgsxprtsttstc/
ntrlgsmprtsmmry-eng.html#a_s_01>
gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/sttstc/ntrlgsxprt/ntrlgsxprtsttstc/ntrlgsmprtsmmry-
eng.html#a_s_01

 

We exported 3.5 Tcf in 2006 and 3.6 Tcf in 2005.  This represents about 56%
of our total extraction for those years.  We consumed about 3 Tcf in 2006
and demand is expected to rise.

 

The NEB's latest report indicates that Canada's indigenous natural gas
supply will decline by 9% to 15% through 2008 - 2009.  

http://www.neb.
<http://www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/ntrlgs/ntrlgsdlvrblty20072
009/ntrlgsdlvrblty20072009-eng.pdf>
gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/ntrlgs/ntrlgsdlvrblty20072009/ntrlgsdlvrbl
ty20072009-eng.pdf

 

Simple arithmatic shows that 3.5 + 3 = 6.5.  As our extraction rate is
expected to slow to between 5.8 Tcf and 5.3 Tcf something obviously has to
give.  Will it be consumption, export or both?  

 

This scenario has at the very least the potential to trigger the relevant
NAFTA clauses agreed to by the Mulroney government.  

 

The relevant article in NAFTA is found in Chapter 6 and is numbered Article
605.  Aka. The "Proportionality Clause".  

 

This clause states that neither party is allowed by government decree to
reduce the flow of oil and/or natural gas to the other partner to a rate
that is less than the average rate that was exported over the last 36
months.  

 

N.B. It is important that we Canadians also understand how this clause
applies to electricity.  In Ontario's case we are a net importer of
electricity.

 

For U.S. energy security this is a Santa Clause.  For Canada this Clause
does not even leave a lump of coal.  

http://www.dfait- <http://www.dfait-maeci.gc.ca/nafta-ALENA/chap06-en.asp>
maeci.gc.ca/nafta-ALENA/chap06-en.asp

 

Mexico by the by said, "Thanks for the offer but if it's all the same to you
we think we'll pass."  

 

Here now is a look at how the U.S. deals with its indigenous extraction of
the COG to its industrial wheel.  (Coal, Oil, Gas)

 

The U.S. exports an insignificantly small amount of coal, oil, gas and
uranium.  

The U.S. liquid fuel consumption is on average about 20 MMb/d

The U.S. produces on average about 5 MMb/d worth of crude oil. 

The U.S. imports close to twice as much liquid fuel as China consumes: 12
MMb/d.

The U.S. consumes 20% of the world's coal production: 1,125 Million Tons
last year. 

The U.S. produced 1,131 Mt last year.  

 

Ergo the U.S. consumed 99.45% of their indigenous coal production.  In every
other case it consumed more fossil fuel energy than it produced.  In the
case of natural gas it imports 17% more than it consumes, and in terms of
liquid fuels it consumes over twice what it produces.

 

The U.S. produces just over 20 Trillion cubic feet of natural gas per year.

The U.S. consumes just over 23 Trillion cubic feet of natural gas per year.

The U.S. imports 15% of its supply from Canada this is about 56% of our
production.

 

The U.S. has 104 of the world's 439 nuclear reactors.

  

Saskatchewan has much of the last of the world's uranium rich veins.  

 

According to  Michael Ditmar of CERN and ETH Zurich, the paucity of uranium
rich veins to bleed into the reactors of tomorrow makes it impossible for
the world to ever increase its current rate of uranium powered electricity.
What I will here call PUE:  Peak Uranium electricity.  This technical
analysis is available from ASPO on DVD. http://www.aspo-
<http://www.aspo-ireland.org/index.cfm/page/shop>
ireland.org/index.cfm/page/shop  His analysis is based on his reading of the
economic and engineering constraints and how these relate to EROEI.

 

U.S. oil and natural gas reserves are both less than 5% of the world's
reserves.

 

The U.S. today consumes close to 25% of the world's production of these
climate dangerous, non-renewable, energy dense, extraordinarily malleable
and transportable molecular gift from nature.  What I call our Molecular
Patrimony. (J.f.B TM. Vraiment! :-)  

 

As I led I close.   These be highly handy facts for all North Americans to
have at their fingertips as we move forward into the fossil fuel energy
constrained future that is as necessary as it is inevitable. 

 

ton confrere,

 

Jeff Berg
www.postcarbontoron <http://www.postcarbontoronto.org> to.org
www.pledgeTOgreen. <http://www.pledgeTOgreen.ca> ca 

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