[Women-peace-and-security] gender and early warning

[Beth Woroniuk]

Even notice of this document has already been posted to the list-serve, I thought this summary might be of interest.  

>From  AWID's Resource Net Friday File, Issue 87


Resource Net
Friday File, Issue 87
Friday, July 26, 2002
2) How can you engender early warning systems?

A summary of the paper entitled: "Gender and Conflict Early Warning: A
Framework for Action" that suggests that gender-sensitive indicators need
to be created in early warning systems and studies of conflict.

By Janice Duddy


By Janice Duddy

Schmeidl, Susanne and Eugenia Piza-Lopez. "Gender and Conflict Early
Warning: A Framework for Action". Prepared by International Alert and
Swiss Peace Foundation. June 2002.
http://www.international-alert.org/women/Ewgender.pdf

This article introduces the importance of considering a gendered
perspective for early warning systems in situations of conflict. The
authors argue that in spite deliberate victimizations of women in recent
wars and the wider recognition of women and women's organization in
conflict resolution, management, and peace building gender remains largely
absent in the pre-conflict context and early warning exercises. This paper
provides an initial framework on how to 'engender' early warning. This
process and benefits can be understood in the following manner:

"1) Incorporating gender-sensitive indicators into information collection
and subsequent analysis allows for previously overlooked signs of
instability to be taken account and concentrates early warning at a
grassroots level, anticipating conflict before it spreads to high
politics.

2) Incorporating gender analysis and perspective into the formulation of
response options ensures discriminatory policies are not perpetuated in
post-conflict situation, or new found freedoms reversed. It also ensures
that response at a political and humanitarian level address the
vulnerabilities specific to women and men".

Early warning systems were first used to predict natural disasters and
stock markets crashes. In the 1980s with models that predicted famine and
potential refugee flow, early warning was established as a tool for
humanitarian efforts. The authors explain early warning by stating, "In
light of the immense human suffering as a result of violent conflicts and
due to costly post-conflict emergency requirement, humanitarian early
warning in recent years has developed knowledge-based models to help
decision-makers formulate coherent political strategies to prevent or
limit the destructive effects of violent conflicts".

Engendering early warning is not only concerned with including women into
early warning system, but on gender mainstreaming or sensitizing the
entire process through the training of both men and women on how to use
gender analysis to fine-tune early warning and allow for a more
appropriate and diverse range of response options equally benefiting both
men and women. The authors give suggestions on engendering early warning
and includes these steps: collection of information, analysis of risk
assessments, formulation of best and worst case scenarios and response
options, and communications to decision-makers.

When considering the collection of information there are two points to
consider: developing gender-sensitive indicators to allow for 'earlier'
early warning and collecting gender-sensitive information through
incorporating and consulting women and women's organizations. "Compared to
traditional approaches, gender analysis elicits different question about
the causes and effects of conflict on different sectors within society,
and their particular relationships and roles with each other". In terms of
indicators, existing literature on early warning offers a variety of
different types of indicators that focus on systemic, proximate,
facilitating, and triggering factors. While these are important to
consider the authors suggest that new gender-sensitive indicators should
be further developed and that current data should be gender disaggregated.
An example of a gender-sensitive indicator is examining the level of
women's participation in the labour force. This could be used to interpret
the extent to which women are integrated into the public sphere. It has
been shown that "The percentage of women in the labour force showed
statistical significance in explaining state bellicosity [likelihood in
being involved in violent conflict]  Increasing the proportion of women in
the labour force by 5 percent for example, renders a state nearly five
(4.95) time less likely to use military force to resolve international
conflict (Caprioli 2000, p.63)".

The authors continue to examine the case for gender-sensitive indicators
for early warning but differentiate between three levels of causes and
suggest ways in which gender-sensitive indicators could be developed. The
first are root or structural/systemic indicators that look at causes that
are deep-rooted in the background of the society. When engendering root
causes the" basic hypothesis is that the more inclusive a society is, the
less likely it will resort to force as a means of conflict resolution".

The second level of causes examined in early warning are proximate causes.
Proximate causes reflect medium terms conditions and emerging
socio-political and economic trends. When they are coupled with root
causes they can create sufficient conditions for armed conflict. The
hypotheses that are used when looking at proximate causes are:

1) When a society moves into armed conflict there will necessarily be
a build-up of aggression at all levels of society, from domestic violence,
to bar-fights, to vandalism.
2) There tends to be an increase in violence against groups low in
status and may be used as a way of achieving in-group status.
3) Men are at risk at being targeted as combatants, forcibly
recruited, or being killed or imprisoned purely on the basis of their
gender in anticipation of resistance force
4) Gender stereotypes are often promoted

>From these hypotheses gendered indicators can be created.

Finally, intervening factors are causes that are examined in early
warning. These are sometimes called accelerators and can either increase
or decrease the likelihood of armed conflict. It is suggested that, "it is
crucial to consider organisations working to diminish violence, which
include the grassroots level where women and women's organisations are
active. It is also essential to consider coping strategies that might be
unique to men or women that can assist in decreasing conflict". Often it
is essential to take a micro-level focus (that has not traditionally been
taken in early warning) in order to see these influences.

This paper has introduced a framework and a set of indicators, most of
which have not been tested, to examine gender in early warning. The
authors state that empirical evidence is needed. However, this paper does
a good job in introducing a new idea and makes a compelling argument for
the importance for a gender-sensitive perspective to helps further
question and refine assumptions about early warning and conflict and in
the design and implementation of proactive and effective responses.

To read the paper in its entirety you can find it at:
http://www.international-alert.org/women/Ewgender.pdf



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