[homeles_ot-l] 2015 Annual Report on the "Success" of Ontario's Poverty Reduction Strategy - released Mar 31, 2016

[Linda Lalonde]

Hi folks,



The province has just released their 2015 report on the performance of the Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS). You'll find it at: https://www.ontario.ca/page/poverty-reduction-strategy-2015-annual-report?_ga=1.258534606.57249396.1455511894. 

Because of the delays in gathering statistics and reporting them, the year the numbers are drawn from and reported on varies from 2013 to 2015. This makes it difficult to compare progress in one area against another. 
The other issue is that they talk about programs introduced in 2015 or 2016 which bear no relationship to the figures being reported. For example, in the Indicator below, it talks about a commitment in 2014 to focus on the vulnerable groups listed. The figures in the chart are from 2012 and 2013 so that commitment made in September 2014 doesn't affect the numbers. 

It's very hard to read this report and decide if they have achieved the goals they set out to accomplish. That's because, with one exception, they have no goals but are measuring their progress against a series of 'indicators'. Using that method, any movement in the indicators, however caused, shows up as success. For example, the chart below shows that 39% of female single parents live in poverty. If half of them got married next week, the rate of poor female single parents would drop and, if they got divorced the following week, the rate would jump again. There is no goal to reduce the percentage of female single parents living in poverty from 39% to 30% by March 2017 or even by 2027. The rate has dropped from 39.6% to 39% so that means things have 'improved' when this indicator is checked.
What's the exception to the 'no goals' approach? Well, when the first 5-year PRS was released in 2008, they committed to reducing child poverty by 25% in five years. Because they didn't achieve that goal, it's been carried over into the second 5-year plan. How are they doing on that? Well, it's hard to tell because StatsCan changed the way they count poor kids so the province says they can't accurately measure the change. Under the old counting method, there were 416,000 poor kids in Ontario in 2008; 417,000 in 2009; 403,000 in 2010 and 399,000 in 2011. From the high point in 2009 to 2011, the drop is 16,000 kids or a decrease of 3.8% over the four years - nowhere near their goal of 25% in 5 years. In 2012, the new method of counting identified 477,000 poor kids which dropped to 456,000 the following year for a decrease of 4.4% - still not on track to achieve 25% in 5 years and probably not in 10 years. They will be greatly helped in getting to that goal by the introduction of the new federal child benefit program. The effect of that won't show up in their annual report until at least 2018 or 2019 though since the money starts to get to families in July of 2016. 
One thing that would be useful would be the total numbers of Ontarians in the various demographic groupings. They do say that the child poverty rate in 2013 was 17.1% so it's possible to figure out there were 2.66 million kids in Ontario that year.
Can they legitimately claim that they are reducing poverty in Ontario? They probably can but the more important question is whether the results they have achieved are the best that they could do for the greatest number of low-income Ontarians. I think they fall far short on that measure. What they aren't measuring is the cost of having huge sectors of our communities living in poverty. The cost of continued poverty will continue to hold the province back from achieving its potential.
Linda.
“Look closely at the present you are constructing: it should look like the future you are dreaming.” - Alice Walker





This is an example of the indicators the province uses to measure the effects of its Poverty Reduction Strategy:

 "PRS  indicator #10: Vulnerable groups with high poverty rates
When the Poverty Reduction Strategy was renewed in 2014, we made a commitment to focus on groups disproportionately affected by poverty: newcomers, people with disabilities, female lone parents, unattached individuals aged 45-64, and Indigenous persons living off-reserve. The rate of vulnerable Ontarians living in poverty (as measured by the  LIM -50) remained steady between 2012 and 2013 at 32 %, or about 589,000 people.
Figure 6: Vulnerable groups in Ontario with high poverty rates
Accessible description of figure 6Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Income Survey, relative  LIM -50* In 2013, activity limitation questions were only asked of one household members and questions changed. This may have caused a break in series between 2012 and 2013.** This total does not include people with disabilities.There is considerable variation in poverty rates between these vulnerable population groups (see Figure 6). For instance, female lone parents and unattached individuals aged 45-64 are more likely to experience deep poverty than others. We also see variation across the five populations when reviewing the poverty rates for vulnerable people living in deep poverty ( LIM -40)The province is taking these trends into consideration moving forward, for example, developing a whole of government employment strategy to help Ontarians with disabilities connect to the labour market. The government also provides funding for a variety of programs and services that help newcomers integrate successfully into communities and workplaces, including language training, settlement services, and bridge training programs that help both internationally trained individuals and highly skilled newcomers get licensed and find work in their field."

   

   

   

  
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