[sust-mar] Nova Scotia and the federal government’s plan to combat climate change (fwd)

[Larry Hughes]

I sent this to you on 28 June and haven't seen it distributed.  Are you 
going to distribute it to sust-mar?

lh.

Larry Hughes, PhD
Professor
Dalhousie University
Halifax, Nova Scotia, B3J 2X4, Canada

v: 902.494.3950
f: 902.422.7535
e: larry.hughes at dal.ca
w: http://lh.ece.dal.ca


---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2016 06:22:58
From: Larry Hughes <lhughes2 at dal.ca>
To: sust-mar at list.web.net
Subject: Nova Scotia and the federal government’s plan to combat climate change


Nova Scotia and the federal government’s plan to combat climate change
Larry Hughes
28 June 2016

This summer the federal government will be holding a series of public 
consultations across the country on combating climate change.  The 
consultations are, in part, a result of Prime Minister Trudeau committing 
Canada to meeting Article 2(a) of the COP-21 Paris Agreement which aims to 
“strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change” by “Holding 
the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above 
pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase 
to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”.

If the Paris Agreement is ratified and comes into force (as the Paris Accord), 
Canadians will be expected to meet a nationally determined emissions reduction 
target by 2030 in preparation  for additional reductions intended to increase 
the likelihood of keeping global temperatures below 2°C.

The 2030 target is a “pledge” to reduce Canada’s 2005 carbon emissions by 30% 
by 2030.  This commitment was made by the previous Conservative government to 
the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) in early 
2015.  Canada’s reduction commitment, along with the national commitments of 
the other signatories of the Paris Agreement, is seen as the first step in 
limiting global temperature rise this century to less than 2°C relative to 
pre-industrial levels.

An examination of recently-released national and provincial emissions data from 
Environment Canada shows that in 2014, Nova Scotia had already reduced its 
emissions by 30% from 2005 levels, the only province to have done so.  Almost 
90% of these reductions were the result of legislation requiring Nova Scotia 
Power to change its energy mix, a decline in industrial electricity demand, a 
decline in road and maritime transportation energy demand, and the closure of 
the Dartmouth refinery.

While impressive in terms emissions reduction, these reductions have come at 
price.  For example, between 2005 and 2014, the residential cost of a 
kilowatt-hour of electricity in Nova Scotia rose by 62%, while between 2011 and 
2014, the province’s annual GDP growth remained constant at 7.5%, relative to 
2005.

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), the organization 
responsible for assessing the scientific, technical, and socio-economic 
information relating to anthropogenic climate change, has estimated that if 
there is to be any likelihood of achieving the 2°C limit, emissions will need 
to decline by between 41% and 72% of 2010 levels by 2050.  In other words, 
further reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will be needed after 2030.

In 2014, slightly over three-quarters of Nova Scotia’s emissions came from 
three sources: electricity generation (43.6%), road transportation (20.5%), and 
space and water heating for residential, commercial, and institutional 
buildings (12.4%).  According to the 2013 Dalton Report (based on data from the 
Nova Scotia Departments of Energy and Environment), by 2050, Nova Scotia 
Power’s emissions will have declined sufficiently for the province to meet the 
IPCC’s 41% target.

Meeting the 72% target will require significant reductions in energy 
consumption and considerable changes to both energy-consuming technology and 
the energy consumed by the technology in almost all sectors of the economy. 
For example, in addition to Nova Scotia Power reducing its emissions, by 
reducing emissions from road transportation and space and water heating to 
zero, the province’s emissions would decline almost 72%. This could be achieved 
by operating vehicles and heating systems with electricity.

Nova Scotia’s experience with emissions reduction, while successful in terms of 
lowering the province’s carbon-intensity, is proving to be an expensive 
undertaking, in terms of both rising energy costs and its impact on the 
provincial economy.  These costs will continue to mount, as new low-, or no-, 
emission infrastructure will be needed to replace existing high-emission 
infrastructure.

Fortunately, since Nova Scotia has already met the 30% target and appears to be 
on its way to meeting all or a significant portion of the proposed 2050 
targets, the provincial government has the time to develop a long-term, low 
socio-economic impact energy strategy.

A low-cost energy strategy could not come at a more opportune time. Although 
most of the political focus on the Paris Agreement has been emissions 
reduction, the agreement also emphasizes the need for adaptation in a world of 
rising temperatures.  Nova Scotia, given its geography, will need to cover the 
costs of adapting to, amongst other things, sea-level rise and changes to 
existing weather patterns.

Publish in AllNovaScotia.com 28 June 2016.

Larry Hughes, PhD
Professor
Dalhousie University
Halifax, Nova Scotia, B3J 2X4, Canada

v: 902.494.3950
f: 902.422.7535
e: larry.hughes at dal.ca
w: http://lh.ece.dal.ca